Windows 10 is officially gone, yet users are refusing to let go. Dell Technologies just revealed a startling statistic that exposes the struggle Microsoft faces with its latest operating system. Despite the aggressive push for AI integration and enhanced security features, the transition to Windows 11 is happening much slower than anyone expected.
It has been over a month since Microsoft pulled the plug on Windows 10 support. You would expect a massive surge in PC sales as users scramble to upgrade. However, top executives at Dell are seeing a very different reality. The numbers suggest that millions of users are holding onto their old machines, and the anticipated “super cycle” of PC refreshes is hitting a serious speed bump.
The Gap Is Wider Than Expected
During a recent earnings call, Dell Technologies shed light on exactly how sluggish this transition has been. Jeff Clarke, the Chief Operating Officer at Dell, did not mince words when discussing the current state of the market. He confirmed that the shift to the new operating system is trailing significantly behind historical trends.
Clarke stated that the company has not completed the Windows 11 transition.
Dell laptop displaying Windows 11 desktop on wooden office desk
“In fact, if you were to look at it relative to the previous OS in the service, we are 10 to 12 points behind at that point with Windows 11 than we were the previous generation.”
This is a massive discrepancy. When Windows 10 launched, it was offered as a free and largely compatible upgrade for Windows 7 and 8 users. The adoption was rapid. Windows 11 has faced a much steeper climb. The 10 to 12 point lag indicates a double-digit percentage difference in market penetration compared to the same point in the Windows 10 lifecycle.
Current Market Share Breakdown (October 2025):
- Windows 11: 55.18%
- Windows 10: 41.74%
- Trend: Windows 11 only grew by 3% in September, while Windows 10 dropped by just 2%.
The data shows that nearly half of the desktop market is still clinging to an operating system that technically reached its end-of-life on October 14, 2025. While there are paid ways to extend security updates, the refusal to upgrade highlights a disconnect between what tech giants are selling and what consumers actually want.
Hardware Walls and Stranded Users
The primary reason for this slow adoption is not necessarily user stubbornness. It is hardware. Unlike previous generations, Microsoft drew a hard line in the sand regarding system requirements for Windows 11.
Millions of perfectly functional computers were deemed obsolete overnight.
If your computer did not have a TPM 2.0 security chip or a relatively modern processor (Intel 8th Gen or newer), you were left behind. Dell estimates the scale of this issue is enormous. Clarke pointed out the specific numbers regarding their installed base.
He noted that there are roughly 1.5 billion units in the wild. Out of those, Dell estimates about 500 million are capable of running Windows 11 but haven’t been upgraded yet. More concerning is the other statistic: another 500 million PCs are over four years old and physically cannot run Windows 11.
These users are stranded. They face a difficult choice:
- Buy a brand new computer they might not be able to afford.
- Continue using an insecure version of Windows 10.
- Switch to alternative operating systems like Linux or macOS.
Many users are also skeptical about the upgrade itself. Online forums and social media are filled with complaints about the new OS.
- Performance: Concerns that Windows 11 uses more system resources.
- Privacy: Worries about increased data tracking and ad integration.
- Bloatware: The pre-installation of unwanted apps and services.
- Interface: Dislike of the centered Start menu and taskbar changes.
Betting Big on the AI Future
Despite the current slow transition, Dell remains optimistic about the future. The company believes that the aging hardware currently in use represents a massive financial opportunity. Eventually, those 500 million “stranded” computers will need to be replaced.
Dell reported revenue of $27 billion for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026. This represents an 11% increase year-over-year. They are projecting even higher numbers for the next quarter, aiming for $31.5 billion.
The driving force behind this optimism is Artificial Intelligence.
Clarke emphasized that the rise of “AI PCs” will eventually force a refresh cycle. These are computers equipped with a Neural Processing Unit (NPU) designed to handle AI tasks locally on the device rather than in the cloud.
He mentioned several factors that could drive sales:
- Small language models running on-device.
- Embedded AI capabilities in the OS.
- More capable applications that require newer hardware.
However, there is a counterargument to this strategy. Most average users utilize AI tools like ChatGPT or Gemini through a web browser. This relies on cloud servers, not local hardware. A user with a five-year-old laptop can write an essay with ChatGPT just as well as a user with a $2,000 AI PC.
The value proposition for the average consumer is not clear yet. Copilot+ PCs are available, but they come with a premium price tag. For a family just needing a computer for homework and streaming, the AI features might not justify the cost of a new machine.
Rising Costs and Economic Factors
Another factor slowing down the transition is the cost of hardware. It is not just about buying a PC; it is about the cost of the components inside it.
RAM prices have skyrocketed recently.
This increase in component costs forces manufacturers to raise the final price of laptops and desktops. When you combine this with general inflation and recent tariff policies, the cost of entry for a new Windows 11 machine is higher than it was for a Windows 10 machine a few years ago.
Dell says they are prepared. The company learned hard lessons during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding supply chains. They claim to have the inventory management needed to meet demand when it finally comes. But the wider market is struggling. Even game console prices have seen significant hikes this year.
The PC market is expected to remain roughly flat year-over-year. While Dell’s server and networking division is booming (up 37% due to corporate AI demand), the consumer PC side is waiting for a spark. That spark was supposed to be the death of Windows 10, but so far, the fire hasn’t caught.
It seems users are holding onto their wallets and their old operating systems for as long as physically possible.
The transition to Windows 11 is proving to be a marathon, not a sprint. With high hardware requirements, rising prices, and a lack of compelling reasons for casual users to upgrade, Microsoft and partners like Dell are facing a stubborn market. The “super cycle” of sales may eventually happen, but it is arriving much later than the industry predicted.
Did you buy a new computer recently, or are you still holding onto your reliable Windows 10 machine? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. If you are frustrated with the hardware requirements, share this story on social media using #Windows11Struggle to join the conversation.
