Bitcoin slid below $68,000 on March 23 as the U.S.-Iran war entered its fourth week and President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants. But billionaire investor Anthony Scaramucci is not shaken. The SkyBridge Capital founder just went on record saying the Bitcoin price rally will kick off in Q4 2026, dismissing growing fears that the crypto bear market has no end in sight.
Scaramucci Calls Bitcoin Dip a “Garden Variety” Correction
1 In an interview with The Wolf of All Streets, Scaramucci described the current Bitcoin price action as a “garden variety” correction. That phrase carries weight from someone who manages billions. 1 He believes institutional buying through BlackRock and Fidelity spot Bitcoin ETFs has softened downside risks, and he insists the 4-year cycle pattern is still ongoing.
His message was clear. Long-term holders, miners, and early whales sold near $100K during this cycle’s peak, and that selling created the choppy price action we are seeing today. 1Scaramucci dismissed claims by experts such as Tom Lee, Cathie Wood, and Arthur Hayes that BTC’s 4-year cycle is broken.
That puts him squarely at odds with some of the biggest names in crypto. 34Arthur Hayes said back in October that the 4-year Bitcoin cycle was over, pointing instead to global liquidity as the dominant driver of price movements. 37Market maker Wintermute also declared “the four-year cycle is dead,” arguing that 2025 may mark the beginning of crypto’s transition from speculation to a more established asset class.
But Scaramucci is not buying it.
Anthony Scaramucci Bitcoin price rally prediction Q4 2026
When Does the Bitcoin Bull Run Start?
1 Scaramucci predicts that Bitcoin price should begin to rally in Q4 2026. “We’re going to chop for a while. But by the fourth quarter of this year, you’ll start to see the traditional move,” he stated. 1 He also said “We’re getting close to the bottom,” highlighting the extreme fear dominating the crypto market right now.
His timeline lines up with historical patterns. 39Assuming the October 2025 all-time high marked the beginning of a bear market, there could be roughly 220 further days of potential downside before Bitcoin’s price bottoms, pointing to mid-October 2026.
36 Analyst Benjamin Cowen agrees this is a bear market year. He says Bitcoin won’t hit all-time highs in 2026, and he ponders whether the bear market is “simply October 2025 to October 2026.”
If both Scaramucci and Cowen are right, the bottom could land sometime this fall, with a rally building into year-end.
What Could Spark the Next Bitcoin Rally?
Scaramucci pointed to several catalysts beyond just the cycle timing:
- The CLARITY Act: 43Two key senators have reportedly come to a tentative deal on stablecoin yield, potentially clearing a path for the crypto Clarity Act. 49Polymarket now shows a 69% chance that President Trump will sign the market structure bill into law this year.
- Stablecoin and tokenization growth: 4Scaramucci’s scenario is based on several factors, including the adoption of crypto assets which continues to progress. According to him, stablecoins also play a key role as they support the market’s development.
- Bank custody for crypto assets: Banks getting the green light to hold crypto for customers could open the floodgates for institutional capital.
- Supply scarcity: 17Bitcoin’s circulating supply reached the 20 million BTC milestone around March 10, 2026, meaning roughly 1 million BTC remain to be mined over the next 114 years.
3 Scaramucci also pointed to aggressive buying by Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy, as an example of how institutional demand is tightening supply. At times, Saylor’s firm has been purchasing more Bitcoin than the network produces daily through mining.
US-Iran War Puts Pressure on Bitcoin Price
The biggest short-term threat to Bitcoin is not the cycle debate. It is the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
25 Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran on Saturday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants. 28 Iran responded that the Strait would be “completely closed” immediately if the U.S. follows through on that threat. 25 Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping traffic since the U.S.-Israel launched strikes on the country on Feb. 28. The escalating conflict has sent oil prices soaring amid fears of a deepening oil supply shock.
Here is how the war is hitting markets right now:
| Indicator | Current Level |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | ~$68,249 |
| Brent crude oil | ~$114 per barrel |
| U.S. WTI crude | ~$100 per barrel |
| Nikkei 225 (since war began) | Down ~12% |
| Kospi (since war began) | Down ~12% |
30 Asian stocks plummeted on Monday as the U.S. and Iran escalated threats. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 3.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged 4.9%.
Bitcoin is moving in lockstep with risk assets right now. 32Despite being known as “digital gold,” Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta tech stock. It correlates with Nasdaq moves, surges on risk-on sentiment, and falls during liquidity crunches.
Scaramucci’s Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target
Beyond the Q4 rally call, Scaramucci remains deeply bullish.
3 Despite the geopolitical tensions, Scaramucci has made a bold long-term prediction for Bitcoin, saying the asset could eventually reach $1.5 million per coin. Speaking on the PBD Podcast, he revealed that Bitcoin remains his largest investment position. “Bitcoin is my largest position by far… and I’ve added recently,” Scaramucci said. 3 His price target is based on Bitcoin eventually reaching the market capitalization of gold. If Bitcoin were to match gold’s valuation, the total market cap could reach tens of trillions of dollars, implying a price close to $1.5 million per BTC. 1 SkyBridge is actively buying Bitcoin at dips, according to recent reports. That is not just talk. That is capital being deployed. 3 Scaramucci also believes the biggest wave of Bitcoin adoption may come from younger investors over the next decade. As wealth transfers to digitally native generations, he expects Bitcoin to become a more widely accepted financial asset. He argued that declining trust in traditional fiat systems could further strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized store of value.
The next few months will test every Bitcoin investor’s conviction. War, inflation fears, rising oil prices, and a stubborn Fed are all working against the short-term bulls. But Scaramucci is betting billions that this is exactly the kind of fear that builds the foundation for the next massive rally. Whether Q4 2026 delivers on that promise could define this entire cycle. Drop your thoughts in the comments below and let us know if you agree with Scaramucci’s call or if the bears still have more room to run.
