The world held its breath Tuesday night. Then, just minutes before a military deadline expired, a peace deal changed everything. Bitcoin surged Tuesday evening after President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, jumping nearly 5% to trade around $72,174.1 The ripple effect across the entire crypto market was instant and unmistakable.
How a Last-Minute Deal Shocked Global Markets
President Donald Trump officially suspended planned military strikes against Iran for a period of two weeks, announcing a “double sided CEASEFIRE” just as his 8 p.m. ET deadline expired on Tuesday.2
The decision followed high-level conversations with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who requested a hold on the “destructive force” prepared for that night. The suspension remains subject to Iran’s complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.2
The timing could not have been more dramatic. Trump had posted on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran didn’t agree to open the Strait. The post sent shockwaves across the globe and markets.3
Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi welcomed the announcement and added that if attacks against Iran were halted, the armed forces would stop its “defensive operations.”3
Further negotiations to finalize the peace deal will begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan.4
Bitcoin price surge after US Iran war ceasefire deal 2026
Key Fact: The ceasefire came less than two hours before B-52 bombers were reportedly already en route. Pakistan’s diplomatic push is widely credited for pulling the world back from the brink.
Crypto Market Reaction: Numbers Tell the Story
Crypto market capitalization climbed from roughly $2.3 trillion to about $2.43 trillion as investors poured back into risk assets, while oil prices tumbled on the de-escalation in the Middle East.1
According to CoinGlass, total market liquidations over the last 24 hours reached $596 million, led by $430 million in short liquidations, reflecting the market’s bearish wipeout.4
Short sellers were caught completely off guard. Here is a quick snapshot of how the market moved:
| Asset | Price | 24-Hour Change | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$72,174 | +5% | $1.42 Trillion |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,257 | +6% | $270 Billion |
| XRP | $1.37 | +4.05% | $84.1 Billion |
Bitcoin’s notional open interest rose 7% and Ethereum’s climbed 11%, both outpacing spot price gains. Rising open interest alongside positive funding rates suggests fresh capital entering the market rather than a pure short squeeze.5
This was not just a short squeeze. Real money was moving in.
On social media platform X, DeFi Tracer identified large buys by major exchanges and market-makers immediately after the ceasefire was announced. According to the expert, Binance purchased 29,344 BTC, Coinbase bought 20,756 BTC, Kraken acquired 8,611 BTC, Wintermute bought 7,188 BTC, and Bybit picked up 5,191 BTC, transactions that together totaled about $4.5 billion in Bitcoin.6
Bitcoin Leads the Charge With Strong Technical Signals
BTC holds in the upper half of a channel capped near $72,600, keeping a mildly bullish near-term bias within a broader corrective structure. BTC has reclaimed the 50-day Exponential Moving Average around $70,500, turning it into dynamic support, with the MACD histogram flipping positive as the MACD line advances above the signal line.7
The RSI reading is just as encouraging. Bitcoin leads gains with strong momentum while RSI and MACD signal continued upside.8 With RSI sitting at 57.42 and above its moving average, buying strength is clearly building without entering overbought territory. That leaves room for more upside.
Despite the recovery, a sustained breakout that could propel Bitcoin prices to new highs is not assured. Investors should focus on the $74,000 level, as it has acted as a significant resistance barrier over the past two months. BTC’s short-term direction will depend on its ability to clear and maintain above that price.6
Any breakdown in talks risks an immediate reversal, with analysts flagging $65,000 to $66,000 as the key support zone to watch if ceasefire optimism fades.5
Ethereum and XRP Show Recovery Signals
The price of Bitcoin jumped above $72,000, surging nearly 5% over a 24-hour period. Ethereum surged higher, hitting $2,257, a 6% rise over the past day.9
ETH’s technical picture is improving fast. The RSI for Ethereum stands at 59.28, above its moving average of 49.17, confirming strengthening demand. If momentum continues, ETH may test resistance between $2,350 and $2,500. However, a decline below RSI 55 could trigger a pullback toward $2,050.8
XRP is showing signs of life too, though it needs more confirmation.
XRP remains embedded in a descending channel from above $2.80, keeping the broader structure bearish while price holds well below the upper boundary near $1.74. Daily closes continue to track under the clustered 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. Momentum stabilizes rather than improves, with the RSI hovering near 50 and the MACD edging back above its signal line but still near the zero mark, suggesting a weak recovery attempt within a dominant downtrend.7
Here is what to watch for each coin moving forward:
- Bitcoin: Key resistance at $73,000 to $75,000. Support at $68,000 if RSI falls below 55.
- Ethereum: Eyes the $2,350 to $2,500 zone. Watch for a hold above RSI 55.
- XRP: A push above $1.45 to $1.55 is the next hurdle. Support at $1.30 remains critical.
What Comes Next for Crypto and the Ceasefire Deal
The oil market reaction underlines just how much pressure has been lifted. WTI crude oil prices dropped sharply by 17%, falling below $95 per barrel. This marks a significant reduction after the escalation of tensions, with prices even dipping below $90 at one point, though still 55% higher than pre-conflict levels.10
The full reopening of the Strait would be bullish for Bitcoin, XRP, and other crypto prices because it would lead to lower crude oil and natural gas prices. Brent, WTI, and other benchmarks had jumped from below $60 in January to over $100. Gasoline and diesel prices had also jumped sharply in the US, raising concerns that inflation would surge.11
Lower energy costs mean lower inflation pressure. Lower inflation pressure means the Federal Reserve has more room to ease. And historically, easier financial conditions are rocket fuel for crypto markets.
A solid ceasefire would likely trigger a new Bitcoin price bull run that could push it toward $100,000.11 But that target depends on the deal holding and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening, which analysts note could still take months even under a truce.
Chief Business Officer of sFOX, Diana Pires, said in a note that any ceasefire news would help crypto. “Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market,” she noted.9
The two-week ceasefire window is now the most important countdown clock in global finance. Every crypto trader, every institutional desk, and every casual investor will be watching Islamabad on Friday when formal peace talks resume. The market has repriced with hope, but hope is fragile when the stakes are this high. Whether this is the start of a real recovery or just another relief rally will become clear very soon. What do you think? Will Bitcoin break $75,000 if the ceasefire holds? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
