The CLARITY Act just got a major boost. Prediction market data shows the crypto bill’s chances of becoming law this year have climbed to 68%, and Washington insiders are calling this week’s meetings between crypto firms and banks the most important yet.
2 The CLARITY Act’s passage odds have risen to 68%, according to Polymarket data, as crypto firms and bank representatives meet in Washington this week to review a stablecoin yield compromise. The stablecoin yield fight has been the single biggest roadblock standing in the bill’s way for months. Now, both sides appear closer than ever to a deal that could reshape how digital assets are regulated in the United States.
What Is the CLARITY Act and Why Does It Matter
1 The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is the most comprehensive piece of crypto regulation ever to pass one chamber of the United States Congress, clearing the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with a 294 to 134 vote. 3 The bill divides crypto regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. It establishes clear rules for how digital assets are classified, traded and overseen. Think of it as the rulebook the crypto industry has been begging for since its early days.
The bill has stalled twice in the Senate. 1The Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup session on January 14, 2026, the very day it was scheduled to begin. 33In response to the draft’s treatment of stablecoin yields, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced a surprise withdrawal of support for the Clarity Act in a post on X.
That single move delayed everything. 34Within hours of Armstrong’s message, the Senate Banking Committee canceled its scheduled markup.
CLARITY Act stablecoin yield ban crypto regulation Senate vote 2026
Prediction Markets Show Growing Confidence
The numbers tell a story of cautious optimism.
2 Polymarket data shows the CLARITY Act now holds a 68% chance of becoming law this year, up over 3%. 2 According to Kalshi, odds are at 47% for passage before July, while August passage probability sits at 72%.
Here is how those odds have shifted over time:
| Timeline | Polymarket Odds | Key Event |
|---|---|---|
| Early 2025 | 82% | Initial optimism post-House passage |
| March 2025 | 54% | Political uncertainty, calendar crowding |
| January 2026 | Dropped sharply | Coinbase withdrawal, markup postponed |
| Mid-March 2026 | 68% | Senate-White House stablecoin yield deal |
1 Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has estimated passage odds at 80 to 90%. 5 Former CFTC Chair Christopher Giancarlo put his odds at about 60 to 40, noting both sides had already missed the White House’s March 1 deadline.
The jump from the low 50s to 68% reflects real progress, not just hope.
Stablecoin Yield: The Fight That Almost Killed the Bill
This is the core battle. Banks want stablecoin yield banned entirely. Crypto firms say that is unfair.
26 Negotiations around the bill have been waylaid for months by a disagreement between the crypto and banking lobbies over whether crypto companies should be permitted to offer yield-like rewards to stablecoin holders. Banks have argued such arrangements could siphon deposits away. 31 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong framed the dispute as a fight against bank lobbying, telling FOX Business it “just felt deeply unfair” that banks could use regulatory capture to ban competition.
The financial stakes are enormous. 32Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue brought in $1.35 billion in 2025 compared to $910 million in 2024, making it the second-largest driver of revenue.
26 Senator Lummis expects the compromise will turn on terminology rather than an outright ban, saying platforms would be barred from using language that frames stablecoin rewards as banking products.
Key takeaway: 26Lummis said platforms cannot use terms like yield, APR, or anything that sounds like banking product terminology when describing stablecoin rewards.
39 President Trump weighed in on Truth Social, writing “Americans should earn more money on their money” and warning that “the Banks are hitting record profits” and should not undermine the crypto agenda.
Capitol Hill Meetings This Week Could Seal the Deal
2 Crypto firms and bank representatives are meeting in Washington this week to review the stablecoin yield compromise, following weeks of negotiations involving Senators Cynthia Lummis, Thom Tillis, and Angela Alsobrooks.
Here is the meeting schedule:
- Sunday, March 23: Crypto trade groups meet with Senate Banking Committee members
- Tuesday, March 25: Banking representatives hold their own session
23 Senator Bernie Moreno said two of his colleagues on the panel, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Thom Tillis, are in the final stage of the stablecoin talks, which also involves the White House. 23 Once they all sign off, it is “go time” for the bill. 2 Details of the legislative text remain undisclosed. One banking source told Crypto In America no group has a clear understanding of its contents so far. 27 Stablecoin yield negotiations are 99% of the way to resolution, the digital asset portions of the bill are in a good place, and the remaining friction is not technical but political.
What Still Stands in the Way
Even with the stablecoin yield fight nearly resolved, the CLARITY Act is not home free.
Remaining hurdles include:
- Ethics provisions: 23Democrat Senator Kirsten Gillibrand said another issue that needs to be resolved is the Democrats’ request that the bill bans senior government officials from personally profiting from the crypto industry.
- DeFi oversight: 21Lummis said negotiators believe they have resolved outstanding questions around decentralized finance, saying “We think we’ve got the DeFi issue put to bed.”
- Legislative horse-trading: 27Senate Banking Republicans are now discussing attaching community bank deregulatory provisions to the CLARITY Act in exchange for the House accepting the Senate’s housing package.
- Midterm election pressure: 1Any Senate floor vote needs to happen before August 2026, when campaigning begins and the Senate’s calendar effectively closes for controversial votes.
21 Senator Lummis said she expects the Senate Banking Committee markup to be scheduled for late April and is confident the full Senate could pass the legislation by the end of the year. 21 “We’re gonna have this thing done come hell or high water by the end of the year,” she said. 5 Former CFTC Chair Giancarlo offered a different perspective, saying the banking industry has more to gain from the bill than the crypto industry. 5 The bill is stuck on whether crypto firms can pay rewards to stablecoin holders, which banks fear could spur capital flight. 5 Giancarlo warned there is a risk activity will shift to Europe and Asia if the U.S. does not act.
The next few weeks will determine whether America leads or follows on crypto regulation. With 68% passage odds, the CLARITY Act is the closest it has ever been to clearing the Senate. But as any seasoned Washington observer will tell you, “close” and “done” are two very different things in Congress. Millions of crypto holders, billions in industry revenue, and the future of digital finance in the United States are riding on what happens in those meeting rooms on Capitol Hill. Share your thoughts in the comments below.
