Palantir Technologies steps into the spotlight with its third-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Monday, November 3, 2025. Investors hold their breath as the AI defense giant’s stock has soared over 170% this year, but a potential U.S. government shutdown looms large. Will strong results keep the rally alive, or will fiscal chaos clip its wings? Stay tuned for the details that could shake the market.
Earnings Expectations Soar High
Analysts predict Palantir will post revenue of $1.09 billion for the quarter ending September 2025. This marks a whopping 50% jump from the same period last year. That growth stems from booming demand for its AI software in both government and commercial sectors.
Government contracts alone should bring in $599 million, up 47% year-over-year. The commercial side looks even stronger at $491 million, a 55% increase. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to hit $0.17, better than last year’s $0.10.
Options traders bet the stock could swing up to 9% post-earnings. History shows bigger moves, with shares jumping or dropping as much as 14% after past reports.
Palantir has beaten Wall Street forecasts in its last two quarters. Yet, stock reactions mixed: a dip after Q1 due to valuation concerns, then a surge after Q2’s stellar U.S. commercial growth.
Government Shutdown Clouds the Horizon
A possible U.S. government shutdown adds tension to Palantir’s outlook. Investors watch closely for how it might hit fourth-quarter guidance.
Palantir relies heavily on federal deals for surveillance, military targeting, and more. Any budget freeze could delay payments or new contracts, squeezing revenue.
Analysts from firms like Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets flagged this risk in recent notes. They worry shutdown talks could dent investor confidence, even if Palantir’s core business stays strong.
Still, Palantir’s defense ties run deep. Recent contracts, including Army deals worth hundreds of millions, show resilience. But prolonged fiscal fights in Washington could test that.
The company has navigated political hurdles before. Its work with ICE and the Israeli military sparked backlash, yet business boomed.
Stock Rally Faces a Reality Check
Palantir’s shares have rocketed more than 170% in 2025, outpacing many tech giants. Since August’s last report, the stock climbed 28%, beating the Magnificent Seven’s 20% gain.
On Monday, shares rose nearly 3% to close at $206.68, signaling pre-earnings optimism.
This rally hinges on AI hype, but valuation worries linger. At current prices, some see the stock as overpriced, especially if growth slows.
Q2 highlighted U.S. commercial strength, with revenue jumping 93% to $306 million. Customer count grew 43%, and big deals poured in.
Traders eye whether Q3 sustains that momentum. A beat could fuel more gains; a miss might trigger a pullback.
Here’s a quick look at key Q3 projections:
- Total revenue: $1.09 billion (50% YoY growth)
- Government revenue: $599 million (47% YoY growth)
- Commercial revenue: $491 million (55% YoY growth)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.17
Inside Palantir’s AI Empire
Palantir builds AI tools that analyze data for businesses and governments. From supply chain fixes to spotting threats, its software powers critical decisions.
Founded in 2003, the company went public in 2020. CEO Alex Karp leads the charge, focusing on defense and enterprise tech.
U.S. government work forms a big chunk of revenue, but commercial expansion drives recent wins. Deals with firms in energy, health, and finance show broadening appeal.
Critics point to ethical issues, like aiding controversial surveillance. Yet, Palantir pushes forward, touting AI as a game-changer for security and efficiency.
In Q2, net dollar retention hit 118%, meaning existing customers spent more. Total customers rose 39% to 629.
Future Outlook and Market Pulse
Palantir raised its full-year guidance after Q2, eyeing 26% revenue growth to $2.807 billion. Adjusted margins should hit 38%.
But the shutdown threat could force tweaks. Investors want reassurance that AI demand will weather any storm.
Analysts remain bullish overall. Wedbush calls Palantir an “AI juggernaut” with potential to double its market cap to $1 trillion.
Defense budgets offer tailwinds too. The 2025 U.S. defense spend is $850 billion, and Palantir’s slice is tiny at 0.3%, leaving room to grow.
As Palantir reports its Q3 earnings, the numbers will either cement its status as an AI leader or expose cracks in the rally. With government shutdown risks adding drama, this moment captures the high-stakes world of tech investing. Investors gain insights into how AI firms like Palantir navigate economic headwinds, potentially affecting portfolios and sparking broader market shifts. What do you think—will Palantir beat expectations and keep soaring, or will shutdown fears ground it? Share your thoughts and spread the word with friends on social media. This topic is buzzing on X with #PLTR trending as earnings day arrives—join the conversation and tag your posts with #PLTR when sharing this article.
