Wedbush Sets $190 Target on SpaceX Days Before Nasdaq-100 Debut

SpaceX stock landed a fresh Wall Street endorsement days before it joins the Nasdaq-100, even as shares slid on the day the call hit the tape. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of the Elon Musk-led rocket and AI company on Wednesday with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, his first published note on the stock since SpaceX’s June 12 IPO. SPCX settled lower on Wednesday, with the day’s tape reflecting the largest one-day drop since the IPO. Wedbush’s $190 price target now sits beside a separate countdown to July 7, when SpaceX officially enters the Nasdaq-100 index.

The note implies around 12% upside from Tuesday’s close of $171, the figure the firm itself cited in the published note. From there, the spread to where shares actually settled widened by the close. That gap is the right frame for what Wedbush is doing in this initiation: a long-dated view that has to survive several sell-the-news moments in the meantime. The call is the first published price target on a name with no operating earnings. What makes the note worth reading is the structure of Wedbush’s argument, with the new headline figure attached.

Wedbush’s Bet That SpaceX Is a Hyperscaler

Ives’ first published note on SpaceX reads less like a launch and satellite call and more like an Amazon Web Services initiation. Wedbush’s view is that vertical integration across launch, connectivity, and AI is the asset that matters, and that SpaceX is “one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market.” In the note, Ives describes the company as “well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler with its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure.”

• Previous close: $170.86
• Open on Wednesday: $171.57
• Wednesday close: $157.54
• Day’s move: -7.80%
• Day’s range: $156.16 to $171.74
• Volume on the day: 102.7 million shares

The $190 price target is the first public number Wedbush has put on that integrated thesis. Yahoo Finance’s analyst page lists an average 12-month price target of $188.17 across the analyst pool now covering the name, with the first published analyst note on the new ticker now sitting at the top of that queue. The high end of that pool sits at $310 a share, the low at $62. The wide range shows how new sell-side coverage is on the stock.

Wedbush launched coverage on the same session the shares logged their biggest one-day drop since the IPO, on a tape that has run a violent five-session range since the public listing. On a market-cap basis, Yahoo Finance lists SPCX at $2.08 trillion intraday on Wednesday.

The Three Lines Behind the Bull Case

Ives built the call on three separate businesses, each of which Wedbush argues can stand on its own. The integration itself is what Wedbush is paying the multiple for, in his framing. The value also sits in the spread of what each individual line can do over the next several years. Investors looking for the hyperscaler case have to look line by line.

Starlink is the consumer-facing piece of the platform, with the note pegging its subscriber count at roughly 12 million as of June 5 and average revenue per user near $66. SpaceX’s share of the global telecom and broadband market is still less than 1%.

The launch business runs as the enabler for everything else. SpaceX flew about 170 missions in 2025 and lofted 2,213 metric tons to orbit, more than the rest of the world combined. Ives framed the launch position as SpaceX being “less the leading provider than the market itself, with everyone else competing for the remainder.” Profit on launch is background revenue to Wedbush. The optionality the rockets unlock elsewhere is what the rating logic actually depends on.

Compute carries the heaviest valuation weight in the $190 target. Wedbush points to roughly $28 billion a year in AI compute deals run through SpaceX’s Colossus data centers, anchored by Anthropic (running Claude) and Google (running Gemini). Compute is the section of the prospectus where Ives reserved the richest valuation multiple, and the largest source of new upside in the target.

Compute Is Where the Case Has to Hold

The Colossus line is also the one with the shortest fuses. Ives conceded in the body of the note that SpaceX’s compute leases are “cancellable within 90 days, making them less durable than traditional multiyear deals” struck by AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud.

SpaceX can move capacity into the market faster and cheaper than the incumbents because it controls its own launch and power footprint, and the contracts do not lock customers in for years the way a typical hyperscaler deal does. That vulnerability is the price of faster scaling, a tradeoff Wedbush is willing to underwrite in the target.

OpenAI and Anthropic are the two biggest counterparties in SpaceX’s Colossus deal book today. Investors will get the first look at renewals, capacity utilization, and pricing pressure when the company files its first quarterly report. The company has not yet scheduled that filing. The 90-day cancellation window is the structural risk Wedbush itself flagged in the same note that carried the $190 target.

The Forced Buying That Lands on July 7

The Nasdaq-100 trade is independent of the analyst call and matters more to the tape on Monday. Nasdaq confirmed last Friday that index-tracking funds and product sponsors will begin purchasing SpaceX shares after the close on July 6, with the company officially joining the benchmark before trading starts on July 7. SpaceX is one of the fastest additions in the index’s history under a fast-track framework that allows some large IPOs to qualify after just 15 trading days.

More than $800 billion tracks the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, and SpaceX is expected to enter with a weighting of less than 1%. Market estimates put the resulting passive demand at close to $4 billion, with the forced-buying sizing for the index addition documenting how the orders will hit the tape. The buy obligation lands against a small public float, with mechanical pressure concentrated in the first hours of trading on July 7.

SpaceX has already secured a parallel slot in the Russell 1000. The S&P 500 will not bend its own rules to add the company: S&P Dow Jones Indices declined earlier in the month to create a similar fast-track process. SpaceX remains ineligible for the S&P 500 under that benchmark’s separate profitability and seasoning requirements, with the next chance to enter the index now sitting roughly a year out.

For now, the only forced-buying event on the calendar is the July 7 inclusion, with the bond-market warning tied to the same week on the credit side. The official confirmation of the July 7 entry means the index addition is the main mechanical trade on the calendar for the week ahead.

The Risk Tape Says Something Different

The same tape that pushed SPCX sharply lower on Wednesday carried a fresh warning from Citadel Securities. The firm circulated a note this week arguing that investors are underestimating the Federal Reserve’s resolve on inflation, with the September meeting flagged as a candidate for an outright rate hike if oil prices and inflation stay elevated. The note pointed to weaker AI demand, falling returns on AI investments, and rising political and regulatory scrutiny as the catalysts most likely to puncture the rally. While SpaceX is not named as a direct target in the Citadel note, the company sits squarely in the basket of stocks most exposed to a re-rating of the AI complex.

ARK Invest kept buying through the volatility, with the AI-risk note circulated to clients this week landing in the same window. Last week the firm added 45,728 SpaceX shares across its active ETFs for a combined value of about $7.01 million. The active-versus-passive split is the right frame for what is coming on July 7, with passive money having to buy the stock and active managers getting to decide whether to hold or sell on the way in.

Where SPCX Stands Heading Into the Inclusion

SpaceX has 18 trading sessions of public history behind it, and the ride has not been smooth. The stock swung from a record high to a record low within the same week, with Wednesday’s settling level sitting below where the company priced in mid-June.

1. June 12, 2026: SpaceX IPOs on Nasdaq at $135 a share
2. June 15: First full trading day
3. June 16: All-time high of $225.64
4. June 22: $20 billion bond sale launches, upsized to $25 billion by June 23
5. June 23: All-time low of $147.11
6. June 26: Nasdaq confirms July 7 inclusion
7. July 1: Wedbush initiates with $190 target

Wedbush’s target implies around 12% upside from Tuesday’s close of $171, the figure Wedbush itself cited in its published note. From where the stock actually settled on Wednesday, the gap widens further. The forced buying starts on July 7, with sell-side initiations set to arrive before then.

The first read on Colossus renewals lands when SpaceX files its first quarterly report, which the company has not yet scheduled. Wedbush’s price target is now the most visible priced expression of the integrated thesis on the sell side. The 90-day cancellation window is the structural risk Wedbush itself flagged in the same note. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion is the next deadline that hits the tape, and it lands next Monday.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does SpaceX join the Nasdaq-100?

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 after the close of trading on July 6, with index-tracking funds required to begin buying shares before trading starts on July 7, 2026.

What does Wedbush’s $190 target on SpaceX rest on?

The target rests on a three-way thesis across Starlink (roughly 12 million subscribers as of June 5), the Falcon launch business, and roughly $28 billion a year in AI compute deals run through SpaceX’s Colossus data centers.

How big is the forced-buying trade on July 7?

Market estimates put the passive inflow at close to $4 billion, with more than $800 billion tracking the Nasdaq-100 and SpaceX expected to take a sub-1% weighting in the benchmark.

What is the main risk Wedbush flagged on the call?

Wedbush conceded in the note that SpaceX’s AI compute leases are cancellable within 90 days, which it said makes them less durable than traditional multiyear deals struck by AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock prices and analyst targets can move quickly; figures are accurate as of publication date. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.