Wall Street Cuts MSTR Targets After Strategy’s 77% Stock Slide

Wall Street cut its price targets on Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) this week. Canaccord led on Tuesday with a $130 target, down from $163, and three other banks trimmed their calls within 48 hours. MSTR traded near $86.93 ahead of the cuts, down 77% from a year ago and just above its 52-week low of $81.81.

Strategy responded on June 29 with a five-part capital overhaul that hands preferred shareholders and noteholders first call on the company’s cash. The plan authorizes up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to back a $2.55 billion USD Reserve. It also raises the STRC preferred dividend to 12.00% and opens $1.0 billion each for buybacks of preferreds and MSTR common stock. Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive, called the shift “from one-way capital issuance to active capital management.”

Wall Street Cuts MSTR Targets in One Week

Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi lowered his MSTR target on Tuesday while keeping his Buy rating. Vafi cited a sharper drawdown in Bitcoin and questions around servicing Strategy’s preferred dividends. He flagged the company’s $1.5 billion buyback of its 2029 convertible notes as a positive.

Three other banks followed. Citi delivered the steepest cut, lowering to $136 from $260 on a Bitcoin base case it reduced 27% to $81,800. BTIG trimmed to $250 from $350, and TD Cowen cut to $260 from $400. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight at $212, and Benchmark kept Buy at $570. The cuts left a wide spread between the lowest and highest surviving targets.

MSTR had been trading under pressure for months. The cuts arrived just as Strategy rolled out a structural fix for the very concerns Wall Street had raised.

• MSTR share price ahead of the cut wave: $86.93
• 52-week low: $81.81
• STRC preferred dividend new annual rate: 12.00%
• Preferred dividend plus interest expense: $1.76 billion annually
• Total preferred dividend liquidity coverage under new framework: 25.9 months

Strategy’s Digital Credit Capital Framework

Strategy unveiled the framework on June 29, 2026 from its headquarters in Tysons Corner, Virginia. The plan spans five pieces: a Board-approved USD Reserve policy, a revised STRC dividend policy, a Digital Credit Securities repurchase program, a class A common stock repurchase program, and a BTC Monetization Program. Each piece targets a different corner of the company’s capital stack.

The headline number is the $2.55 billion USD Reserve, sized as of June 28, 2026. That figure covers about 17.4 months of Strategy’s expected annual preferred stock dividends and interest expense, which the company puts at $1.76 billion. The Board also adopted a minimum policy of 12 months of coverage. Together with $1.25 billion of Board-authorized BTC monetization capacity, the framework gives Strategy roughly $3.80 billion of total preferred dividend liquidity, or 25.9 months at current run-rate.

The STRC preferred dividend resets to 12.00% annually for semi-monthly periods with record dates on or after July 1, 2026. The framework also opens a $1.0 billion repurchase authorization for the company’s Digital Credit Securities, including STRC, STRF, STRD, and STRK. A second $1.0 billion authorization covers MSTR common stock, though the company says those repurchases cannot be funded from the USD Reserve.

Strategy remains committed to Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. At the same time, Digital Credit requires liquidity, discipline, and active capital management.

Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, said that in the company’s June 29 press release. Andrew Kang, the chief financial officer, called Bitcoin “capital” and tied the framework’s $3.80 billion of liquidity directly to the reserve and the monetization program.

Common Shareholders Sit Last in Line

The cuts landed on the common stock. MSTR’s 77% year-over-year slide reflects the same Bitcoin drawdown that hit every other leveraged proxy, amplified by the company’s structural exposure. Strategy’s market net asset value, or mNAV, has slipped below 1.0 for the first time in the cycle, sitting near 0.80 after Bitcoin dipped under $60,000.

When mNAV falls below 1.0, the market is pricing Strategy at less than the BTC on its balance sheet. Management had already signaled the squeeze. To support the new framework, the company sold roughly $1.15 billion of MSTR shares and paused additional Bitcoin purchases. CryptoQuant, cited in industry coverage, puts annualized STRC dividend obligations at about $1.2 billion, against cash reserves that the company itself now sizes at $2.55 billion.

Common shareholders sit behind those obligations in any recovery, with preferred dividends paid before equity holders see a residual. The framework’s $1.0 billion MSTR repurchase program is authorized, but only when management judges the stock to be trading below intrinsic value. The ordering is deliberate: credit first, equity last.

Preferred Holders Get a New Toolkit

The framework tilts the field toward credit. STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate Series A preferred, now pays 12.00% annually, up from 11.50% for the prior four months. The framework’s $1.0 billion Digital Credit Securities repurchase program lets the company retire preferreds at a discount to their $100 stated amount, lowering future dividend obligations if shares trade below par.

STRC has traded well below $100; one industry reading earlier this week put it near $74.57. The new BTC Monetization Program gives Strategy a tool it did not previously have, with the board authorizing sales of up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund the USD Reserve, to pay preferred dividends and interest expense, or to finance repurchases of preferreds and common stock. Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, has urged Strategy to sell $3 billion of Bitcoin to clear near-term obligations, a prescription laid out in Pandl’s call to sell $3 billion in Bitcoin. That recommendation captures the open question: sell Bitcoin to clear the preferred stack, or keep stacking and hope the equity recovers first.

Bitcoin’s Drop and the mNAV Problem

Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 is the proximate cause of both the price-target cuts and the company’s pivot. Strategy’s tracker-reported holdings stand at 847,363 BTC, most recently bumped by a 520 BTC purchase on June 22 for about $35 million at an average price of $67,068. The company has not announced a new buy since the framework, and management has paused further accumulation while mNAV sits below 1.0.

Saylor had telegraphed the pivot on Strategy’s Q1 2026 earnings call in May, saying that below 1.22x mNAV, “it is actually more accretive for us to sell Bitcoin and pay off our dividends than it is above 1.22x mNAV.” That math now lines up with Pandl’s prescription. Bitwise’s André Dragosch noted last week that the current valuation “also implies that the market expects that MSTR will sell 1% of their BTC stack.”

The framework’s $1.25 billion BTC monetization capacity sits just above that implied figure. Strategy has signaled it will use that tool when the next STRC reset window opens.

How Wall Street Frames the Aftermath

Canaccord framed the cuts as cyclical rather than structural. The firm’s analyst note, distributed Tuesday, kept its Buy rating intact and argued that Bitcoin’s store-of-value thesis was unchanged from a year ago. The note also cited InvestingPro data showing the stock’s RSI in oversold territory and a Fair Value analysis that suggested MSTR was undervalued at current levels. Bitcoin’s role in financial markets has matured past its identity crisis between risk asset and store of value, the firm added.

We think there is nothing broken here, either in the company’s model or in bitcoin, which suggests a pendulum swing back makes sense sometime over the medium term.

Canaccord Genuity set out that view in its July 1 analyst note on Strategy. TD Cowen took a similar line, calling its cut a recalibration of Bitcoin’s long-term path rather than a rebuke of Strategy’s strategy, and describing the new framework as “incrementally positive.”

TD Cowen’s new $260 target still implies roughly 200% upside from current trading levels, per the note. BTIG framed MSTR as leveraged Bitcoin exposure with active capital management, arguing the company could outperform Bitcoin on the way back up as prices recover. The cuts, in short, lowered the price the Street is willing to pay for that exposure without ending the bet.

MSTR rallied after the framework announcement and the target cuts, closing up 7.43% at $93.39 on July 1, 2026. The stock remains sharply below its year-ago level. Wall Street’s surviving targets span a wide spread that captures how much disagreement the Street has over the rest of this cycle. The Bitcoin-led MSTR target reset from TD Cowen sits inside that spread; the framework’s success in restoring credit confidence will help decide whether the equity targets follow.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Wall Street cut on MSTR this week?

Four banks lowered their price targets on Strategy between June 30 and July 1, 2026. Canaccord cut to $130 from $163, Citi to $136 from $260, TD Cowen to $260 from $400, and BTIG to $250 from $350. All four kept Buy ratings. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight at $212 and Benchmark kept Buy at $570.

What is Strategy’s Digital Credit Capital Framework?

Strategy announced the framework on June 29, 2026. It combines a $2.55 billion USD Reserve policy, a higher STRC preferred dividend of 12.00%, $1.0 billion repurchase programs for Digital Credit Securities and MSTR common stock, and a $1.25 billion BTC Monetization Program. The combined $3.80 billion of liquidity coverage works out to about 25.9 months of preferred dividend and interest payments at current run-rate.

Why is MSTR down 77% from a year ago?

Strategy’s stock tracks Bitcoin through a leveraged treasury model. Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 this cycle, and the company’s market net asset value (mNAV) fell below 1.0 for the first time, to about 0.80. When mNAV slips under 1.0, the market values Strategy at less than the BTC on its balance sheet, and new share issuance becomes harder to justify without diluting common holders.

Will the new framework restore MSTR’s share price?

No analyst in the round provided a forecast that the framework alone would restore the price. The four banks that cut targets kept Buy ratings, and TD Cowen’s new $260 target implies roughly 200% upside from current trading levels. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its $212 target, and Benchmark kept its $570 target unchanged.

How does the BTC Monetization Program work?

The board has authorized Strategy to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin for three purposes: to fund the USD Reserve, to pay preferred dividends and interest expense, and to finance repurchases of Digital Credit Securities or MSTR common stock. Any sale outside those purposes would require further board authorization. The program has no fixed expiration date.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Bitcoin and crypto-related equities carry substantial risk, including total loss of principal. Figures, prices, and price targets are accurate as of publication date, July 2, 2026, and may change. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.