Scaramucci Bets Trump Clears Ethics Path as Clarity Odds Sink

Anthony Scaramucci says President Donald Trump will approve the bipartisan ethics package that could unlock a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, even as prediction markets price only a 27% chance the bill becomes law in 2026.

The SkyBridge Capital founder made the call Friday as senators race the August recess and stakeholders pile on last-minute pressure. The odds have slipped from 30% earlier in the week.

That gap between one prominent backer’s confidence and the market’s skepticism now defines the final stretch. Scaramucci is betting that a single White House signal can reorder the floor calendar. Traders are betting that ethics, jurisdiction fights, and the clock will not yield so easily.

Scaramucci Puts His Name on the Ethics Fix

In a widely shared post, Scaramucci pointed to the work of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego. He wrote that the pair “have worked out a very strong bipartisan ethics provision.”

“If POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity? If Dems (or GOPs in the pocket of bank lobby) stand in the way, they will regret it in November,” he said. The post drew more than 550 likes and 37,000 views within a day.

Tillis and Gallego sent their counteroffer to the White House on Thursday. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the draft gives state attorneys general a role in enforcing limits on federal officials’ digital-asset activities. Earlier Republican language had left enforcement only with federal prosecutors, a structure Democrats rejected.

The shift matters because it spreads enforcement power beyond a single set of federal offices. State AGs would gain a direct lane to police the same conduct. That structure addresses the core Democratic objection without rewriting the rest of the bill’s market rules.

Scaramucci also claimed in a deleted post that Trump’s children were comfortable with the bipartisan terms. That detail remains unconfirmed by the White House. Even so, the public claim itself adds a layer of political pressure on the review now under way.

Odds Collapse Into the Final Stretch

Polymarket traders now assign a 27% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is signed by year-end. Volume on the contract exceeds $3.5 million. A related market gives only a 28% chance of any Senate vote before the recess.

The slide tracks a packed floor calendar and unresolved fights beyond ethics. House passage last year came on a 294-134 vote that included 78 Democrats. The Senate version still needs 60 votes to clear procedural hurdles.

Prediction markets move with news, not schedules. A White House green light or a cloture filing by Majority Leader John Thune could reverse the trend in hours.

• 27% current chance of full 2026 enactment
• $3.5M+ trading volume on the main Polymarket contract
• 28% chance of a pre-recess Senate vote
• 60 votes still required to advance past filibuster

The drop from the early-2026 peak above 80% to the mid-20s shows how quickly legislative optimism decays once the calendar tightens. Each unresolved title becomes another reason for traders to fade the contract.

What Else Still Blocks a Floor Vote

Ethics is the loudest fight, not the only one. Negotiators continue to wrestle with stablecoin yield rules, the precise split of SEC and CFTC authority, and protections for non-custodial developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act language.

• Stablecoin yield rules and what bank groups call yield loopholes
• The split of SEC and CFTC authority over spot digital-asset markets
• Protections for non-custodial developers in the BRCA language
• Illicit-finance language sought by some Democrats, including Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto

Bank groups have pressed to close what they call yield loopholes. Some Democrats, including Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, have sought tighter illicit-finance language. Law-enforcement groups that once opposed parts of the bill, including the Fraternal Order of Police, have shifted toward endorsement.

Even a clean ethics deal leaves the Senate’s multi-day cloture process. Competing priorities include nominations, funding talks, and foreign-policy votes. Thune has said a vote is likely if Democrats supply the necessary support, but he has not locked a date.

That combination of policy residue and procedural drag explains why a single bipartisan ethics text, however strong, does not automatically clear the floor. Each open item still has a constituency ready to slow the package.

Pressure Builds From Treasury and Industry

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered the sharpest public push on Thursday. In a post viewed more than 2.2 million times he wrote that the House passed its version more than a year ago and that Senate committees had advanced their titles.

The Senate needs to vote NOW on this landmark legislation.

Bessent argued that Democrats fear Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s “Anti-Crypto Army” and that failing to act would cede U.S. leadership. The full text is available in his Senate needs to vote NOW on this landmark legislation statement. That call echoes Bessent’s earlier demand for an immediate floor vote as developer-exodus risks mounted.

Grayscale, the ETF issuer, sent a letter to Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer requesting a vote before recess, framing the issue as U.S. competitiveness. Sen. Cynthia Lummis said Thune has kept a place for the bill “for many, many weeks” and still intends to move. Charles Schwab’s public backing of the bill added another traditional-finance voice to the industry chorus.

The range of voices now on record spans a Treasury secretary, an ETF giant, a major brokerage, and the bill’s Senate champions. That breadth makes silence from the White House harder to sustain without a clear political cost.

Next Week Decides the 2026 Path

If Trump accepts the Tillis-Gallego language, leadership can circulate a revised text and attempt cloture. A successful first procedural vote would keep the bill alive for September even if final passage slips past the recess.

A rejection or silence leaves the package stalled. The Senate returns for a short window before midterms. Election-year politics then dominate. Scaramucci’s November-regret warning would become the central political argument for crypto supporters.

For market participants the practical stakes are clear. Passage would lock in a federal framework for digital commodities, exchange registration, and custody rules. Failure extends the current patchwork and the incentive for capital and talent to locate elsewhere.

The next 72 hours after any White House signal will show whether Thune treats the bill as must-move business or as optional calendar filler. That scheduling choice, more than any remaining policy tweak, decides the summer outcome.

How the Bill Reached This Cliff

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on the Senate calendar (H.R. 3633) was introduced in May 2025 by Rep. French Hill. It defines digital commodities, assigns primary oversight of spot markets to the CFTC, and creates pathways for mature blockchains to avoid full SEC registration.

1. May 2025 – Rep. French Hill introduces H.R. 3633, defining digital commodities and CFTC spot-market oversight.
2. July 2025 – House passage on a 294-134 vote that included 78 Democrats.
3. Later committee action – Senate Banking and Agriculture panels advance their titles.
4. Late July 2026 – A White House-approved ethics draft emerges but fails to satisfy Democrats.
5. Thursday – Tillis and Gallego send their bipartisan counteroffer to the White House.

The House cleared it in July 2025. Senate Banking and Agriculture panels advanced titles. A White House-approved ethics draft emerged in late July 2026 but failed to satisfy Democrats, prompting the Tillis-Gallego rewrite. Tillis previously calling the ethics package incomplete had already flagged the issue as a personal red line.

The bill now sits on the legislative calendar as Calendar No. 423. That technical step is complete. The political step is not.

State Attorneys General Gain Enforcement Power

The Tillis-Gallego counteroffer rewrites who can police federal officials’ digital-asset conduct. Earlier Republican language kept that power inside federal prosecutors alone. Democrats rejected the narrow design.

By opening a lane for state attorneys general, the new draft multiplies the number of offices that can bring cases. A single federal bottleneck no longer controls the entire enforcement map. That change is the price of bipartisan cover on ethics.

Scaramucci treated the provision as strong enough to remove the last major political objection. If the White House agrees, opponents lose the argument that the bill leaves officials under-policed. The remaining fights then shift back to yield rules, agency turf, and developer protections.

The unconfirmed claim that Trump’s children were comfortable with the terms adds a family-political dimension to a technical enforcement rewrite. Markets have not yet priced that claim as decisive. They are waiting for the formal White House response instead.

Senate Math Differs From the House Vote

The House cleared the bill 294-134, with 78 Democrats joining the majority. That margin signaled broad chamber support once the text reached the floor. The Senate path is steeper by design.

Sixty votes are still required to advance past a filibuster. Thune has said a vote is likely if Democrats supply the necessary support, yet he has not locked a date. The ethics package is meant to unlock those Democratic votes without peeling off bank-aligned Republicans.

House success therefore does not translate into automatic Senate momentum. The same bipartisan coalition must be rebuilt under a higher procedural bar and a shorter remaining calendar. That is the mechanical reason the Polymarket contract sits near 27% even after a bipartisan ethics text reached the White House.

The Calendar and the Campaign Calendar Collide

Seven days of Senate business remain before the break. After that, members scatter to campaign. A September window exists but will be crowded with must-pass funding bills.

Scaramucci’s bet is that Trump wants the win more than he wants the original partisan ethics text, and that public pressure plus family comfort will tip the decision. Markets are pricing the opposite: that process, time, and residual policy fights still dominate.

Either outcome arrives soon. The White House review of the Tillis-Gallego draft is the immediate trigger. Once that signal lands, the next 72 hours of floor scheduling will tell whether the CLARITY Act gets its shot this summer or joins the long list of crypto bills that ran out of calendar.