Oil’s Surge Past $100 Exposes Cracks in Crypto’s Treasury Bet

Bitcoin dropped below $65,000 on Thursday after Brent crude jumped to $101.09 a barrel, a nearly 8% spike in 24 hours that pulled Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, Bitmine and Robinhood shares lower with it, CoinGape reported. The European Central Bank held its key rate steady hours earlier but flagged a September hike, layering fresh rate anxiety onto an oil shock already spooking risk assets.

The sharper damage is inside two companies built to hold crypto with borrowed and raised money. Strategy has gone two straight weeks without buying bitcoin, and Bitmine’s stock has lost roughly half its value this year, a strain Thursday’s oil headlines are only now dragging into view.

Crude’s Surge Past $100 Drags Bitcoin Under $65,000

Brent futures traded at $101.09 during Thursday’s session, up close to 8% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 7% to $92.77, according to CoinGape’s report. The jump tracks escalating military tension between the United States and Iran, now stretching into its fifth month.

Bitcoin slipped under $65,000 and ether lost around 3% on the day. Coinbase Global (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, fell more than 2% to $162.51. Strategy (MSTR), Michael Saylor’s bitcoin holding company, dropped nearly 6% to $94.29.

Fresh U.S. jobless claims data added to the pressure. Claims fell sharply, a sign of continued labor market strength that traders read as room for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.

Why Do Oil Shocks Keep Hitting Crypto Stocks?

Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations, and inflation expectations raise the odds that central banks respond with tighter money. Tighter money makes borrowing costlier and drains liquidity from the riskiest corners of markets first, crypto stocks among them. That is the direct mechanical link between a barrel of Brent crude and a Coinbase share price.

The chain has run through 2026 more than once. The European Central Bank raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, its first increase since 2023, after months spent cutting rates into a war that began in late February. Eurozone inflation has since eased to 2.8% from 3.2% in May, yet ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters in Frankfurt that inflation would likely stay above target into the first half of 2027.

Markets are not waiting for confirmation. Data tracked by Trading Economics put the odds of a September ECB hike near 70% as of Thursday. On the U.S. side, CoinGape’s report pegged the odds of a Fed hike by September at 56.5%, per the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks rate expectations through 30-day Fed funds futures pricing.

1. Late February 2026: Fighting between the United States and Iran escalates, sending oil prices sharply higher and forcing the ECB to abandon its rate-cutting campaign.
2. June 11, 2026: The ECB raises its three key rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike in three years.
3. Early July 2026: ECB officials strike a calmer tone at the Sintra forum, signaling less urgency for a second move.
4. July 23, 2026: The ECB holds rates again, but Lagarde opens the door to September as renewed Strait of Hormuz strikes push oil higher.

Coinbase, Strategy and Circle Post the Steepest Declines

Five crypto-linked stocks closed lower on Thursday, tracking the broader risk-off mood across equities.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, fell nearly 5% to $63.18. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) slid about 2% to $102.40, a sign the pullback in risk appetite reached even retail-favored brokerages.

The Leverage Playbook Saylor Built and Bitmine Copied

Strategy’s model is simple on paper. Raise money through stock and debt sales, then use it to buy bitcoin and hold it on the balance sheet. Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, has run that playbook since 2020. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, adopted the same approach for ether in 2025.

Both companies are now showing the strain of a year in which the coins they hold have fallen hard. Bitmine’s unrealized losses on its ether stack grew from roughly $6 billion in February to about $8.9 billion by early June, as ether slid under $1,800. The stock remains down about 50% for the year even after a small pre-market bounce last week.

Tom Lee has called the paper losses “a feature, not a bug” of the ether treasury strategy, arguing Bitmine is built to track, and eventually beat, ether over a full market cycle rather than trade in and out of it. The company still holds roughly 5.4 million ether, close to 4.5% of the coin’s circulating supply, built up at an average cost far above today’s price. That scale is exactly why the drawdown runs into billions rather than millions.

Strategy has faced its own recalibration from Wall Street. Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev kept a buy rating on the stock in March but cut his 12-month price target from $403 to $320, a reduction of more than 20%, even while staying bullish on the longer-term thesis.

Strategy Stops Buying, Starts Stockpiling Cash

Strategy disclosed a run of defensive moves last week rather than its usual bitcoin shopping list. The company sold common stock and, for the first time in years, prioritized cash over coins.

• $263.5 million raised through a common stock sale disclosed in a Monday filing
• $225 million of those proceeds added directly to Strategy’s cash reserve
• $3.225 billion total cash on hand, equal to 22 months of dividend coverage on its high-yield preferred stock, STRC
• 843,775 bitcoin held, unchanged for a second consecutive week

Strategy disclosed its first bitcoin sale since 2022 earlier this year, a break from the buy-only posture that built its reputation. That move, paired with two quiet weeks on the buying front, has fed debate over how the company plans to keep funding obligations tied to its preferred stock offerings once cash-raising options narrow.

A Fourth Oil Shock Finds Bitmine Already Bruised

Thursday’s slide is not the first time Middle East tensions have hit crypto stocks this year. Bitcoin sank after a third round of U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, then again when Houthi attacks on tankers sent oil surging, and once more as bitcoin tried to hold $65,000 through a ninth straight night of strikes. Thursday’s drop extends that same pattern into its fifth month.

What has changed is which companies have the least room left to absorb another shock. Bitmine spent the year defending billions in paper losses and recently repurchased 5.5 million of its own shares just to steady the stock. Strategy is building cash instead of buying bitcoin for the first time since it started the playbook.

The next test arrives fast. The Federal Reserve meets July 28 and 29, and the ECB’s next scheduled decision follows in September, the meeting Lagarde has already flagged as the likely trigger point for a second hike this year.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is a Crypto Treasury Company?

A crypto treasury company raises money through stock or debt sales and uses the proceeds to buy and hold digital assets like bitcoin or ether on its balance sheet, rather than running a traditional operating business. Critics warn these treasuries could become forced sellers if prices stay low for long, while supporters describe them as long-term, index-style exposure to the underlying coin.

Could the ECB Raise Rates More Than Once This Year?

Yes. Beyond a possible September move, analysts tracked by Trading Economics see scope for one or two additional increases by year-end if energy prices stay elevated through the rest of 2026.

How Far Has Ether Fallen From Its Peak?

Ether has dropped more than 57% from its 2025 peak near $4,955, a decline that has hit institutional treasury strategies like Bitmine’s especially hard given how much ether they hold.

Does Bitmine Still Buy Ethereum Despite the Losses?

It has, at times. Bitmine added 126,971 ether, worth about $214 million, in one of its largest single purchases of the year even while sitting on billions in unrealized losses. More recently, though, the company has leaned toward repurchasing its own shares rather than adding more ether.

Disclaimer: This article covers crypto and equity market moves for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices, rate odds and treasury figures are accurate as of publication and can shift quickly, so consult a licensed financial adviser before trading.