Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Post Leaves Strategy’s Next Move a Mystery

Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s Bitcoin tracker to X on Sunday with a caption that broke his own six-year pattern: “Orange dots tell only part of the story.” The post landed six days after Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million, the company’s largest single Bitcoin sale since it began buying the cryptocurrency in 2020. Bitcoin was trading near $62,000 at the time, down about 54% from its October peak near $125,000.

Strategy authorized a $1.25 billion bitcoin monetization program in late June, alongside separate buyback plans for its preferred and common stock. According to The Block, last week’s sale did not even count against that ceiling, leaving the company more room to sell bitcoin than the headline figure alone suggests.

Saylor’s Weekend Post Breaks His Own Pattern

For most of the past year, a Sunday chart from Saylor has meant one thing: buy the dip. In November, he asked, “What if we start adding green dots?” The next day Strategy disclosed a 130 BTC purchase and built a $1.44 billion dollar reserve through common stock sales. On June 7, he wrote “A good time to add more dots,” and the Monday filing confirmed the pattern again. On June 28, the caption was “We’re gonna need more charts,” and it, too, preceded a purchase disclosure.

This time the post came after a sale, not before a purchase, and the caption itself signaled uncertainty rather than conviction. Even Strategy’s own bitcoin purchase ledger strips out sold coins and their average prices from its totals row, showing only the accumulation side of the balance sheet.

How Big Was Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale?

Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for about $216 million between June 29 and July 5, split into two tranches, to fund distributions on its preferred stock and rebuild its dollar reserve. It was the biggest liquidation in the company’s history of holding crypto on its balance sheet.

The first tranche moved 1,363 BTC for $80.8 million between June 29 and June 30 at an average price of $59,256 per coin. The second moved 2,225 BTC for $135.2 million between July 1 and July 5 at an average of $60,773. Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC, acquired for about $63.69 billion at an average cost of $75,476 per coin, and its dollar reserve stood at $2.55 billion as of July 5. Shares fell roughly 2% in pre-market trading after the disclosure, and bitcoin slipped back to $61,900 from $62,900.

Peter Schiff, an economist and longtime Bitcoin critic, said the sale reflected a realized loss of roughly $15,000 per coin against Strategy’s average cost, or about $54 million on the tranche sold below that basis.

Who Gets Paid First Now

Phong Le, Strategy’s president and chief executive, framed the past three months differently. He said holdings grew about 10% to 843,775 BTC between April 6 and July 6, dollar reserves rose 13% to $2.55 billion, and the year to date bitcoin yield roughly doubled to 7.8%.

Saylor has described the new structure in three layers: bitcoin itself as Digital Capital, STRC as Digital Credit, and MSTR common stock as Equity Capital, each serving different investors within one strategy.

• Digital Capital – the 843,775 bitcoin on the balance sheet, the base asset the entire structure exists to hold.
• Digital Credit – STRC and its sibling preferred shares, debt-like instruments paying a fixed cash dividend that now sits ahead of common shareholders in the payment line.
• Equity Capital – MSTR common stock, the leveraged bet on bitcoin’s price that gets diluted a little each time coins are sold to keep preferred dividends flowing.

STRC only gets issued at or above its $100 par value, since that is how proceeds fund new bitcoin purchases. Once it slipped below par, Strategy raised its annualized dividend rate to 12% and leaned harder on common stock and bitcoin sales instead. Investors who bought MSTR for amplified bitcoin exposure are watching that exposure shrink with every coin sold to protect preferred holders.

Critics Pile On as the Preferred Stock Wobbles

Ripple’s chief executive, Brad Garlinghouse, told CNBC that Saylor’s team “wasn’t focused on the right stuff” and that the funding approach had hurt the broader market, pointing to STRC’s discount as evidence of a flawed model.

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, urged Strategy on June 23 to pause buying and rebuild cash, noting dividend obligations had quadrupled to about $1.2 billion a year while STRC’s coverage window shrank from more than seven years to roughly 14 months. Simply Wall St has also flagged rising scrutiny from class action law firms over the sustainability of the funding model.

The rest of the story is how much money Strategy lost on those Bitcoin buys and how much more money shareholders will [losing] repaying debt and paying dividends to preferred shareholders.

That came from Schiff, reacting on X to Saylor’s latest tracker post, a pointed answer to Saylor’s own claim that the orange dots only tell part of the story.

Six Years of Never Selling Ends Quietly

Saylor founded the company in 1989 as MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm, long before it became rebranded from MicroStrategy to Strategy in February 2025. It adopted bitcoin as its primary treasury asset in 2020 and built its identity on a doctrine of never selling, treating accumulation as a one-way commitment through every market cycle.

MSTR stock once traded near $457 in the past year before its slide into the current price range. The May sale of 32 BTC, the company’s first disposal since 2022, was small enough to look symbolic. July’s much larger sale removed any doubt: active, recurring capital management has replaced the old one-way pledge.

Where Wall Street Splits

Analysts do not agree on what the new posture means for Strategy or for bitcoin’s price. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani says the firm “continues to be a net buyer in the market” and that this bear market has been milder than the 2022 downturn. TD Cowen cut its price target on Strategy to $260 from $400, a 35% reduction, while keeping a buy rating.

• Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet – sees a difference in time horizon rather than a genuine disagreement, and says the new framework addresses a real liquidity gap around preferred dividends.
• Analysts at JPMorgan and CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno – take the more cautious view: JPMorgan calls the new setup avoidable two-way risk, while Moreno wants reserves rebuilt to about $2.8 billion before buying resumes.
• Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered – reads the sales as a structural pivot toward backing STRC with bitcoin, and still expects the preferred stock to recover toward its $100 par value.

CoinGecko’s treasury tracker shows the stash sitting 17.6% underwater on paper, a gap of roughly $11.2 billion between cost and current value. Bernstein still calls compulsory liquidation unlikely, noting Strategy’s next major debt repayment, about $1 billion, is not due until the third quarter of 2028. Whatever Monday’s filing shows, the $1.25 billion selling window Strategy built in June stays open long after this particular chart resolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do Michael Saylor’s orange dots actually track?

The chart marks every bitcoin purchase Strategy has made since adopting BTC as a treasury asset in 2020, plotting each buy as an orange dot against bitcoin’s price. A separate green dotted line tracks the company’s rolling average purchase price, which moves only when Strategy adds coins, not when bitcoin’s market price shifts.

Has Strategy stopped buying Bitcoin?

No confirmed purchase followed the July 12 post as of this writing. Strategy’s last disclosed buy was 520 BTC in the week ending June 20, and the company still calls bitcoin its primary treasury reserve asset in SEC filings even as it now sells coins periodically to cover preferred dividends.

Why did STRC fall below its $100 par value?

STRC is a preferred share class Strategy issues only at or above $100, since sales at that price fund fresh bitcoin purchases. Once it slipped below par, that funding channel narrowed, pushing Strategy toward common stock sales and, more recently, bitcoin sales to cover roughly $10 billion in outstanding STRC obligations.

Could Strategy be forced to sell its whole Bitcoin stack?

Bernstein analysts say a large forced liquidation looks unlikely in the near term. Strategy’s next major debt repayment, about $1 billion, is not due until the third quarter of 2028, and the company still has roughly $25 billion in unused stock issuance capacity to raise cash before touching its bitcoin holdings.

How dominant is Strategy among corporate Bitcoin buyers?

Strategy accounted for about 98% of all bitcoin purchased by treasury companies in 2026, up from roughly 5% in October 2025, according to a TradingKey analysis. Its 843,775 BTC works out to just over 4% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or legal advice. Bitcoin, Strategy common stock and Strategy preferred securities are volatile assets carrying substantial risk of loss. Figures are accurate as of publication on July 13, 2026, and may have changed. Consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.