Just days before its big screen launch, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is walking into a buzzsaw of bad headlines. Box office trackers are slashing forecasts, Mark Hamill is in damage control, Pedro Pascal made jaws drop on “The Late Show,” and Gina Carano is about to steal the spotlight on Netflix. Disney’s first “Star Wars” film in seven years could not have asked for a rougher runway.
Box Office Tracking Slips Toward Solo Territory
The numbers are not what Lucasfilm wanted to see. As of May 11, The Mandalorian and Grogu is predicted to bring in around $86.5 million, or in the range between $74 million and $90 million, in its domestic opening weekend from May 22 to May 24.
For its entire run in US and Canadian theaters, it’s projected to earn $215 million, or in the ballpark from $152 million to $228 million. That puts it on the same shaky path as “Solo: A Star Wars Story.”
The lowest opening for a Star Wars live-action movie belongs to 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which debuted to $103M over the four-day Memorial Day holiday and finaled at $213.7M domestic and $392.9M worldwide, ultimately leading to Lucasfilm scrapping a plan for stand-alone movies about legacy characters.
There is one silver lining hiding inside the math. The production budget for the film is reportedly $166 million, according to the California Film Commission, after Disney received around $21 million in tax credits as part of California’s Film and TV Tax Credit Program. The movie earned the tax break for being the first Star Wars feature to be shot entirely in California. This means that The Mandalorian and Grogu only needs to cross the $415 million mark to be profitable.
Mandalorian and Grogu Memorial Day weekend box office tracking
How the Numbers Stack Up
| Film | Opening Weekend | Production Budget |
|---|---|---|
| Star Wars: Episode IX (2019) | $177M | $275M |
| Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) | $84M (3-day) | $300M (reported) |
| The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026) | $74M to $90M (projected) | $166M |
Mark Hamill’s Trump Post Turns Into a PR Headache
The franchise’s most famous face just handed critics a gift. The original post featured an AI-generated image of Trump lying dead in a casket with a gravestone reading “1946-2024” and a caption expressing wishes for his downfall, which Hamill later deleted and replaced with an apology.
The White House’s rapid response team replied publicly on X, calling Hamill “one sick individual,” adding, “These Radical Left Lunatics just can’t help themselves.”
Hamill tried to walk it back. “Accurate Edit for Clarity: ‘He should live long enough to be held accountable for his crimes.’ Actually, I was wishing him the opposite of dead, but apologize if you found the image inappropriate,” Hamill wrote.
Hamill has no formal role in The Mandalorian and Grogu, but his identity is inseparable from Star Wars. The release of The Mandalorian and Grogu has become linked with a complication that Disney likely did not need.
Pedro Pascal’s Colbert Kiss Sparks a Social Media Firestorm
The press tour took a strange turn this week. On May 12, Colbert sat down with Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Pedro Pascal and wound up kissing both of them on the lips to the delight of his studio audience.
Pedro Pascal and Stephen Colbert kissed on Tuesday’s episode of The Late Show. The Mandalorian and Grogu actor said he asked for a kiss because he was “jealous” after seeing Colbert and Julia Louis-Dreyfus kiss during their interview earlier in the show. Colbert said there was “no need” to be jealous, adding, “These lips will soon be free.”
“I got jealous.” Pedro Pascal, after kissing Stephen Colbert on the lips during a “Late Show” promo stop for “The Mandalorian and Grogu.”
Pascal then referred to himself as “an actress,” exclaiming, “But I’m an actress! You know what I’m saying?” The clip went viral within hours, splitting fans between those who found it charming and those who called it cringeworthy promo behavior.
Gina Carano Returns to Steal the Weekend Spotlight
The biggest distraction may not even involve “Star Wars” directly. Ronda Rousey (12-2, 9 submissions, 3 KOs) is back to shake up the world of combat sports with her first fight in nearly a decade against fellow women’s MMA pioneer Gina Carano (7-1, 1 submission, 3 KOs).
The fight lands six days before the movie opens. Rousey vs. Carano streams live on Netflix on May 16 at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET, included in all plans. Carano, who Disney fired from the original “Mandalorian” series in 2021, is suddenly back on every entertainment website.
Her side of the story keeps the wound fresh. “I had so much anxiety in my body that my face hurt, my skin hurt me,” she told “The Ariel Helwani Show.” “I don’t know if anybody’s had that, it hurt so bad. My soul was just crushed.”
- Where: Intuit Dome, Los Angeles
- When: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Why it matters: Reminds millions of viewers what Disney lost
- Co-main events: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry, Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
Carano has also discussed her Zoom call with Jon Favreau and Dave Filoni, reflecting on her lawsuit settlement and addressing the possibility of working with Lucasfilm again. Whether that leads anywhere remains anyone’s guess.
The Case for Hope: Favreau, Family Audiences and a Quiet May
It is not all doom for Disney. The film holds real strengths the trackers may be underselling.
The Jon Favreau-directed film was predicted to earn a 73% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, slightly higher than Solo’s 69% and Star Wars 9’s 51%. That has since jumped up to a 75% rating, though reviews for the movie have yet to come out. The review embargo is set for May 19, several days before its theatrical release date of May 22 in the US.
The film’s position as the first bona fide family-friendly tentpole since April’s Super Mario Galaxy Movie also does it some favors for built-up demand, as will a blanket IMAX and premium screen presence.
Favreau himself is the trump card here. He built the live-action “Star Wars” TV brand from scratch with the original series in 2019, and he delivered “Iron Man” and “Elf” before that. If anyone can pull a Disney-era “Star Wars” theatrical comeback out of the fire, the trackers admit it is probably him.
The story of “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is shaping up to be more than a movie release. It is a stress test for the entire “Star Wars” brand, for Disney’s grip on pop culture, and for whether a beloved bounty hunter can outrun a week of bad headlines and one very loud MMA fight. Audiences will decide the verdict at the box office on May 22. Will you be in line opening weekend, or waiting for Disney+? Drop your prediction in the comments and share your take with friends using #MandalorianAndGrogu.
