Arthur Hayes Bets HYPE Will Flip Solana Before Cycle Ends

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks Hyperliquid (HYPE), the token of the onchain derivatives exchange, should pass Solana (SOL) in market value before this crypto bull run ends. He laid out the wager on X in late May, posting a snapshot that put Solana near $47.73 billion and Hyperliquid around $15.04 billion. Closing that gap means HYPE has to climb about 3.17 times from where it sat, to roughly $215 a token.

Hayes is not calling this from the sidelines. He holds more than 26,000 HYPE, he has rejected the idea that the market has already turned bearish, and big money managers are now buying the same story. Sitting against him: a gulf of more than $32 billion, a stretched valuation, and a regulatory complaint filed by two of the largest exchanges in traditional finance.

Hayes Puts a $215 Target on the Hyperliquid Bet

The post that set this off was blunt. Hayes shared an image of the crypto rankings and challenged readers to think bigger about what a top token could be worth.

Are we dreaming big enough? Looking at this list of mostly dogshit coins, I think $HYPE should at a minimum overtake $SOL before this bull run is over.

That line came from Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and a frequent macro commentator, in a May post on X. The math behind it is straightforward. To match Solana’s value in his snapshot, Hyperliquid needs to roughly triple. At the price he referenced, $67.69, a 3.17x move lands near $215. After his post, HYPE rose 2.52% to $68.89 on Sunday, May 31, brushing an all-time high of $69.97 the same day.

It is a sharp upgrade from his earlier number. Hayes had previously floated $150 as his target, so the Solana call pushes his expectation considerably higher. His broader read on the cycle, including outsized price targets for other assets, has been a recurring theme; he has also made a public case for a six-figure Bitcoin price tied to Federal Reserve easing.

The Cash Machine Behind the Conviction

The reason Hayes and others keep pointing at HYPE is its tokenomics. Hyperliquid funnels almost all of its trading fees back into buying its own token on the open market, which creates a steady, structural bid under the price. The protocol has now purchased more than $1.16 billion worth of HYPE that way.

The business throwing off that cash is real. Hyperliquid processed about $2.9 trillion in trading volume during 2025 and holds roughly 60% of global onchain derivatives open interest, according to Bitwise. Hyperliquid Strategies, a treasury vehicle that holds the token, reported quarterly earnings of about $152.5 million.

• $2.9 trillion in trading volume cleared on the platform in 2025
• 60% of global onchain derivatives open interest, per Bitwise
• 99% of fees routed to token buybacks, by Bitwise’s account

That fee-to-buyback loop is the part institutions find easy to explain, and it has fueled a string of headlines, including the Hyperliquid team moving large HYPE balances as network fees topped the charts. For a token, it behaves less like a meme and more like a cash-generating stock with a buyback program.

Wall Street Is Buying the Same Thesis

Hayes is far from alone. A wave of regulated products and bullish notes from established managers has formed around HYPE in a matter of weeks, and that institutional demand is part of what makes his call more than a lone trader’s hope.

Bitwise’s Staking-Powered ETF

The Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (exchange-traded fund, a stock-market wrapper that holds the asset) began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 15 under the ticker BHYP. It carries a 0.34% sponsor fee, waived for the first month on the fund’s first $500 million in assets, and it stakes its holdings to earn extra token rewards. The fund pulled in near $60 million since its mid-May debut.

Bitwise chief investment officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has been the loudest institutional voice. He called HYPE a “generational asset” and argued it should be measured against the roughly $600 trillion global financial market rather than crypto’s smaller universe. He also described selling the token to financial advisers as “magic,” crediting the buyback design. Full details sit in the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF launch announcement.

Grayscale Adds Staking to Its Filing

Grayscale has been working the same lane. On May 26 it renamed its proposed product the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF and updated its registration to let the trust collect staking rewards, naming Anchorage Digital Bank as custodian and BNY Mellon as administrator. Analysts read the staking language as a possible accelerant for approval. The paperwork is in the Grayscale Hyperliquid Form S-1 registration statement. Grayscale is also reported to be buying HYPE directly.

The $32 Billion Gap and What Stands in It

The gap is the whole problem. Hayes’s own figures put more than $32 billion between the two tokens, and clearing it asks HYPE to rally over 200% while assuming Solana stays roughly where it is. If SOL rallies too, the target moves further away.

Skeptics have called the run overextended for good reason. Several risks sit directly in the path of the bet:

• Valuation overhang. HYPE’s fully diluted valuation (FDV, the value of all tokens once unlocked) has been pegged in the $35 billion to $39 billion range, well above its circulating market cap, which signals dilution pressure as more supply vests.
• Supply unlocks. A multi-year unlock schedule keeps releasing new tokens that buybacks must absorb, and a large tranche near a price high can overwhelm that bid.
• Regulatory heat. CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) urged U.S. regulators in May to scrutinize Hyperliquid over market-manipulation and sanctions-evasion concerns, according to reporting at the time.
• Volume sensitivity. Perpetual futures activity falls fast in downturns, and a quieter market means fewer fees feeding the buyback engine.

Hayes waved off the bear talk directly. When one user said they were in a bear market, he replied that his altcoin portfolio disagreed, arguing the cycle is still intact despite the swings in major coins. Not everyone is convinced the upswing has room left; some analysts warn a crypto bear market could stretch into 2027, which would knock the legs out from under a 3x altcoin call.

HYPE and SOL, Side by Side

Set against each other on Hayes’s own snapshot, the two tokens show how much ground HYPE still has to make up. The comparison also explains why the call is bold rather than incremental.

The momentum is not only theoretical. Hyperliquid has already pulled ahead of Solana on some activity measures, including the day silver trading volume on Hyperliquid topped $1 billion and beat Solana. Closing the market-cap gap, though, is a different and far larger ask than winning a volume snapshot.

What Has to Happen by 2028

Hayes has tied his longer thesis to a clock. He has said the bull market can run through 2028, powered by wider stablecoin adoption and rising crypto trading volume, both of which feed Hyperliquid’s fee engine. That timeline gives the buyback machine more room to grind through unlocks and gives the ETFs more time to gather assets.

For now the wager rests on a single chain of logic: more trading means more fees, more fees mean more buybacks, and more buybacks mean a higher token. If trading volume holds and the new ETFs keep drawing money, the catch-up math gets easier and the Solana flip moves from a dare into a target. If volume cools or the regulators bite, the buyback bid thins out and the $215 number stays a screenshot on X.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Arthur Hayes predict about Hyperliquid and Solana?

He said HYPE should overtake SOL in market value before the current bull run ends. Using his own snapshot, that means Hyperliquid roughly tripling to about $215 a token to close a gap of more than $32 billion.

How much HYPE does Arthur Hayes hold?

Hayes has said he holds more than 26,000 HYPE tokens, and he has described Hyperliquid as one of his highest-conviction positions.

Can U.S. investors buy a Hyperliquid ETF?

Yes. The Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF trades on the NYSE under the ticker BHYP, launched May 15 with a 0.34% sponsor fee. Grayscale has also filed for a Hyperliquid staking ETF that is awaiting regulatory review.

Why do supporters say HYPE is undervalued?

Hyperliquid routes nearly all trading fees into buying back its token, has cleared trillions in volume, and holds a majority of onchain derivatives open interest. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues it should be valued against the global financial market rather than crypto alone.

What are the main risks to the Solana flip call?

A fully diluted valuation well above the circulating cap, continued token unlocks, a regulatory complaint from CME Group and ICE, and the chance that trading volume slows in a downturn and weakens the buyback bid.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrencies such as HYPE and SOL are highly volatile and carry significant risk of loss. Predictions cited here are personal opinions, not guarantees. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication.