Sharp swings before the opening bell on Friday, March 13, 2026, pointed to another rough day for investors. With oil hovering near $100 a barrel, the S&P 500 sitting at its lowest level of the year, and Adobe shares in freefall after a surprise CEO exit, the premarket action painted a clear picture: buckle up.
Why Stocks Are Swinging Before the Bell
Premarket trading runs from 4:00 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern, before the regular session starts.1 Fewer orders are available during this window, which means prices can move sharply on lighter volume.
On Friday morning, the tone was cautious but active. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.4% as of 7:47 a.m. in New York.2 But that modest bounce came after a brutal Thursday. The three major averages finished the previous session with more losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to close at 6,632.19, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.93% to 22,105.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 119.38 points, or 0.26%, to 46,558.47.3
This was the S&P 500’s lowest close since November.
The premarket bounce suggested some dip buyers were stepping in. But traders were far from confident.
premarket stock movers volatile trading session oil prices Wall Street
Adobe Leads the Biggest Premarket Drops
The single biggest name on the premarket losers list was Adobe.
The software giant saw shares tumble 8%. CEO Shantanu Narayen said that he would step down from his post after a successor has been named. Narayen will remain as chair of the company’s board. He has been Adobe’s CEO since 2007. The news overshadowed first-quarter beats on the top and bottom lines.4
The earnings themselves were strong. Earnings per share came in at $6.06, beating analysts’ estimate of $5.87 per share. Revenue hit $6.4 billion, topping analysts’ expectations of $6.28 billion, while sales increased 12.1% year over year. Annualized revenue from AI-first products more than tripled year over year.5
But the leadership shakeup spooked investors.
The revelation that the company hasn’t planned for succession may also be contributing to the sell-off.6 The board appointed Frank Calderoni, lead independent director, to chair the search committee considering both internal and external candidates.
Other notable premarket movers on Friday included:
- Ulta Beauty lost 7.4% after reporting weak earnings results. For its fourth quarter, Ulta posted earnings of $8.01 per share, falling short of the $8.03 per share that analysts polled by LSEG were expecting.4
- Fertilizer stocks rose on expectations that Strait of Hormuz disruptions will continue amid the escalating Iran war. Intrepid Potash and Nutrien both climbed 2%, while Mosaic climbed 1%.4
Oil Prices and the Iran War Dominate Sentiment
The elephant in the room for every trader this week is crude oil.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 3.11% at $98.71 per barrel on Thursday. Brent futures settled higher by 2.67% at $103.14 a barrel. Brent had closed above $100 for the first time since August 2022.3
The rally in crude is directly tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Stocks came off a losing session as oil spiked after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, should remain shut as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Traffic in the Strait has virtually been halted since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February.3
Here is a quick snapshot of the week’s key market numbers:
| Indicator | Value / Change |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (Thursday close) | 6,632.19 (down 0.61%) |
| Nasdaq Composite (Thursday close) | 22,105.36 (down 0.93%) |
| Dow Jones (Thursday close) | 46,558.47 (down 0.26%) |
| WTI Crude (Thursday settle) | $98.71/barrel (up 3.11%) |
| Brent Crude (Thursday settle) | $103.14/barrel (up 2.67%) |
| VIX (“Fear Gauge”) | 27 |
Fears of 1970s-style stagflation have been stoked as the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran has rattled markets and prompted a spike in oil prices. A toxic mix of higher inflation and slower growth often proves a difficult combination for both equity and bond markets.3
What the Fed’s Next Move Means for Traders
The oil shock has rewritten expectations for interest rate cuts.
Chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month are practically zero and odds of a cut in 2026 don’t rise above 50% until September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of two cuts or more this year fell to around 35% from almost 85% a month ago, meaning the market generally anticipates just one cut this year.7
That is a massive shift in just a few weeks.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its critical March 17-18 policy meeting, the U.S. economy has entered a precarious “policy trap” that pits a cooling labor market against a violent resurgence in energy costs. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year over year, while core inflation remains stubbornly sticky at 2.5%.8
For premarket traders, the Fed’s tone next week could be the next big catalyst. If policymakers signal they are done cutting for now, stocks could face another leg down. If they hint at flexibility, it could spark a relief rally.
How Smart Investors Are Navigating This Chaos
Professional money managers are not blindly chasing the early moves. They are watching a checklist before making decisions:
- Opening volume: Does it confirm the premarket direction?
- Gap behavior: Do early gaps hold or fade within the first hour?
- Sector rotation: Are defensive sectors like utilities leading, or is growth taking charge?
- Oil headlines: Any progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
- Fed language: Key signals from the March 17-18 meeting
With the VIX at 27, most institutional desks are advising caution. Strategic pivots toward “quality” and “yield” are expected to continue, with a preference for companies with high free cash flow and low debt-to-equity ratios.9
Short-term traders, on the other hand, are looking for quick patterns. Gap-and-go setups and gap-fill reversals are the playbook in this kind of environment. Tight stop losses are essential when liquidity is thin before 9:30 a.m.
“Earnings are pretty good, but sentiment is difficult. The oil part of the sentiment and equity valuation embeds an interest rate path which is now being questioned.” David Aspell, Chief Investment Officer, Mount Lucas Management
Stock market volatility in 2026 reflects geopolitical risk and reassessment of expectations, not a breakdown in economic fundamentals. A market correction depends on whether higher energy and trade costs persist long enough to affect growth, inflation and earnings.10
The message from Friday’s premarket is hard to ignore. Oil near $100, a tech giant losing its longtime leader, earnings that beat but still got punished, and a Federal Reserve caught between inflation and a slowing economy. The S&P 500 posted a 1.6% loss this week and notched its first three-week losing streak in about a year. The Dow slid about 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.3% for the week.3 For everyday investors watching from the sidelines, the smartest move right now may be patience. Markets will eventually find their footing, but until the fog of war and inflation clears, every premarket tick is going to feel like it matters more than usual. Stay informed, stay cautious, and don’t let fear drive your decisions.
