Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Odds to 50%

Galaxy Digital cut its 2026 CLARITY Act passage odds to 50% on June 26, citing a Senate calendar already crowded by the SAVE Act, lapsed Section 702 of FISA, and the annual defense bill. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, published the revised estimate on X and wrote that the downgrade was “primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill.” The new figure is down from 60% on June 5 and 75% on May 22.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the most ambitious piece of U.S. crypto market structure legislation, has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 since June 1, six weeks after the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9. With the chamber on an extended recess until July 13 and floor time thinning before the August break, Thorn pegged the next two weeks as the window that will decide whether the estimate climbs back up or drifts lower.

Galaxy Sets CLARITY Act Passage Odds at 50-50

In a research note, Thorn wrote that he was “reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago.” The figure continues a steady erosion that mirrors the Senate’s shrinking runway before the August recess. Galaxy set the odds at 75% after the May 22 markup, dropped them to 60% on June 5, and now sits at 50-50. The firm has tracked the same arc every few weeks since the Senate Banking Committee vote, as detailed in Thorn’s June 26 note on the 50% estimate.

Thorn called the latest cut “primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill.” He framed the absence of new public developments on the bill in recent weeks as a signal in itself, writing that “the absence of news is itself the news.” He added that private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote.

The full odds history from Galaxy, by date, captures the slide:

• May 14 (Senate Banking markup day): 55%
• May 22: 75% (raised)
• June 5: 60% (lowered)
• June 26: 50% (current)

The Bill Is on the Calendar, Not on the Floor

The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 bipartisan vote, as detailed in the committee’s announcement of the markup vote. The Senate formally placed it on its legislative calendar on June 1. Thorn noted that the bill has sat there as item No. 423 since, with no floor date and no motion to proceed scheduled. The Senate is on an extended recess until July 13, secured by unanimous consent.

For a 60-vote bill that still requires a merged Banking-Agriculture text, floor debate, an amendment process, and House action on whatever the Senate produces, the calendar has become the binding constraint. Thorn wrote that Majority Leader John Thune would need to announce floor time “by early July at the latest, possibly during the July 4 recess, with the vote itself occurring before the August recess.” Senator Cynthia Lummis has said the Senate expects to release the final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review. If the Senate amends the House version, both chambers would still need to reconcile the legislation before sending it to the president. Absent a floor commitment, the realistic path slips to September and into midterm dynamics that make controversial floor votes harder to schedule.

Calendar, Not Substance, Drives the Downgrade

Thorn tied the downgrade directly to a string of competing priorities that have absorbed the Senate’s attention since his June 5 research note that set the 60% baseline. Section 702 of FISA lapsed on June 12 after the Senate and House failed to pass a reauthorization, a Grassley-Cotton-Warner product still needs floor time, and the FY2027 NDAA, the annual must-pass defense bill, also has to clear before the recess. He has watched the bill’s window shrink week by week as the must-pass list keeps growing. The cumulative drag is what tipped Galaxy to lower the estimate.

On June 24, President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a bipartisan, bicameral housing bill that had passed 358-32 in the House and 85-5 in the Senate, saying he would not sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill. The bill had cleared both chambers with veto-proof majorities before the President’s reversal.

Thorn described the move as injecting “another contentious, leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue.” He added that the SAVE Act is exactly the kind of unrelated, contentious priority that crowds out everything else in a compressed pre-recess window. The Senate calendar has been losing weeks, not gaining them.

Floor time is the scarcest resource in the Senate right now, and crypto market structure is not first in line for it.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, in a June 26 post on X. He tied the same point to the absence of a floor date, a motion to proceed, or a public agreement on a merged Banking-Agriculture text.

Open Issues That Still Have to Close

Beyond the calendar, several policy disputes remain unresolved. Ethics provisions continue to divide lawmakers: a Van Hollen conflict-of-interest amendment failed 11-13 in committee, but Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker continue to insist on enforceable standards as a condition of their support. The committee deferred the ethics question to the floor, leaving it for a floor fight that has not yet been scheduled. The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, the bill’s developer-protection title, is also still in play. Four national law enforcement organizations wrote to the Trump administration on June 23 warning that Section 604 and related exemptions could create anti-money-laundering loopholes.

The U.S. Department of Justice publicly rejected the argument, writing that the legislation would not weaken investigations into offenses including terrorism financing, drug trafficking, and human smuggling. Thorn wrote that the illicit-finance hawks continue to seek further changes, and there has been no public sign that a middle ground has been reached.

The remaining open issues, by who is pushing:

• Ethics: Gallego and Booker, Democrats; Van Hollen amendment failed 11-13 in committee
• Developer protections (BRCA): Law enforcement organizations, opposed by DOJ
• Banking-Agriculture merge: Combined text not yet released

What Would Push the Estimate Back to 60%

Thorn wrote that three things would push the estimate back up, with the first carrying the most weight. A scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would “likely push us back toward 60% or higher.” Continued silence into mid-July would push the figure lower.

The triggers Thorn identified, in order of weight:

1. A floor commitment from Senate leadership for July
2. A public agreement on combined Banking-Agriculture text
3. A credible resolution of the ethics and BRCA issues that delivers a durable Democratic vote bloc

The Democratic math is tight. Thorn expects at least two Republican no votes, from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, both of whom voted against the GENIUS Act last year. That leaves the bill needing roughly nine Democratic votes to reach 60, a threshold the ethics dispute has so far blocked. Lummis has publicly warned that failure this year could delay comprehensive market structure legislation until 2030 or beyond, per his April research note on the markup endgame.

Prediction Markets Sit Below Galaxy

Polymarket traders put the bill’s 2026 passage chances at about 41% as of June 26, well below Galaxy’s new estimate. The prediction market’s implied odds have drifted down from 74% a month earlier, a swing sharper than Galaxy’s own cut. Both Galaxy and Polymarket have been moving in the same direction since the markup vote.

JPMorgan analysts have separately estimated the bill’s 2026 passage chances at less than 50%, a third forecast that lands in the same skeptical range as the prediction market. The three reads are now clustered within roughly ten points of each other:

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the CLARITY Act?

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is a federal bill that would set the first comprehensive U.S. rules for digital asset markets. It would draw jurisdictional lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, create a “mature blockchain” test for when tokens are no longer securities, and bring digital commodity intermediaries under federal registration and anti-money-laundering rules for the first time. The House passed its version 294-134 in July 2025. The bill has been the subject of intensive Senate negotiations since January.

Why did Galaxy Digital cut its CLARITY Act 2026 passage odds so sharply?

Thorn wrote on June 26 that the Senate calendar had become the binding constraint. The SAVE Act fight, lapsed FISA Section 702, and the FY2027 NDAA are all competing for the same limited floor time before the August recess. No floor date or motion to proceed has been scheduled for the bill. Thorn framed the absence of new public developments on the bill in recent weeks as a signal in itself.

When could the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act?

Thorn wrote that Majority Leader Thune would need to schedule floor time by early July at the latest, with the actual vote occurring before the August recess. Lummis has said the Senate expects to release the final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review. The Senate is on an extended recess until July 13. A floor vote in July is the only realistic path to passage this year, Thorn wrote.

What would push Galaxy’s odds back to 60% or higher?

Thorn listed three triggers: a public agreement on combined Banking-Agriculture text, a credible resolution of the ethics and developer-protection disputes that delivers a durable Democratic vote bloc, and a floor commitment from Senate leadership for July, with the scheduling announcement in the next two weeks the most important of the three.

What does Polymarket say about CLARITY Act passage in 2026?

Polymarket traders priced the bill’s 2026 passage chances at about 41% as of June 26, down from 74% a month earlier. Prediction markets have moved below Galaxy’s own estimate, and a third forecast from JPMorgan has placed the odds in the same skeptical range.